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2018-2019 Basketball Predictions

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/2018-ratings.html

Indiana was 10th out of 14 in defensive rating
12th in offensive rating
And 9th in net rating

They were 16-15 and 0-9 vs tournament teams.

The Year before, Crean got fired for being 18-16 and:

3rd in offensive rating
13th in defensive rating
And 5th in net rating

So Archie Miller was terrible last year and much worse than Crean. There's no way to spin that favorably for him so all the Indiana fans going around acting like he was good are complete trolls and/or know nothings.
 
Per 100 Possession Stats in conference play

Devonte Green
O rating 96.6
Net rating -7
20.8 points on 18.1 fg attempts 1.15 points per shot attempt
7.2 assists
4.9 turnovers
2.6 steals
0.5 blocks
4.8 rebounds
.498 True Shooting %
13.4 PER


Nojel Eastern
Orating 104.6 D rating 100.4
Net rating +4.2
14.6 points on 11.5 fg attempts 1.27 points 0er shot attempt
4.5 assists
3.4 turnovers
2.2 steals
1.1 blocks
13.5 rebounds
.490 True Shooting %
13.4 PER


Devonte Green chucked up a ton of shots despite being wildly inefficient. Nojels stats also resemble that of a power forward, that's a good number of rebounds per 100 possessions. Nojel was a much more efficient player at 104. O rating compared to 96.6 for Green (96.6 is just laughably bad)

There's 2 differences

1. Nojel Easterrn was a true frosh while Devonte Green was playing in his second season

2. Nojel Eastern was elite defensively while Green was terrible on defense as well, as evidenced by their net ratings.



Green is nowhere close to the caliber of player of Nojel Easter .

I was looking at dem old fashioned stats like assist to turnover ratio and ft % for Pgs Green and Eastern, but Doesn’t useage rate increase often equate to lower advanced stats? And Green’s trendline significantly improved over the season.

Also, I looked up the advanced stats for Durham. Quite similar to Nojel Eastern’s. Once again, saw Eastern play and I think he’ll be quite good, but he’s a PG who hasn’t had to consistently guard other points, who hit41% from the line, and didn’t shoot well from deep. He’s a question mark that might or might not work out.

Just like the young IU guards.
 
I was looking at dem old fashioned stats like assist to turnover ratio and ft % for Pgs Green and Eastern, but Doesn’t useage rate increase often equate to lower advanced stats? And Green’s trendline significantly improved over the season.

Also, I looked up the advanced stats for Durham. Quite similar to Nojel Eastern’s. Once again, saw Eastern play and I think he’ll be quite good, but he’s a PG who hasn’t had to consistently guard other points, who hit41% from the line, and didn’t shoot well from deep. He’s a question mark that might or might not work out.

Just like the young IU guards.

Durham and Eastern are very similar right now in their college careers. Still a lot of ways both can eventually go coming off their true freshman year.

Eastern separated himself by being one of the premier defenders in the league. So even if his offense never comes around, he can still be Khalil Iverson at the very least.

Devonte Green has two years evidence that he's not really good at either offense or defense.
 
And by the way; I don’t see Fitzner mentioned all that much on IU sites or this thread, but his advanced stats? A combined three year offensive rating of about 118 (better than Carson Edwards last year) while starting on multiple tourney teams, 80% from the line, 41% from three with lots of attempts. Low useage, but the definition of proven and reliably good.
 
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Durham and Eastern are very similar right now in their college careers. Still a lot of ways both can eventually go coming off their true freshman year.

Eastern separated himself by being one of the premier defenders in the league. So even if his offense never comes around, he can still be Khalil Iverson at the very least.

Devonte Green has two years evidence that he's not really good at either offense or defense.

Geez, I get it statistically and I respect your consistency, but I think you’re underrating a player’s upside and trendline.

Green, like Eastern and unlike Durham has big flaws but big upside. Troy Williams was a hot mess for two years, but by his junior year he carried IU in the NCAA tourney. That is anecdotal, but you get the theory. And that’s why as last year progressed, Green and Eastern’s useage went up, and players like Durham and Newkirk on IU and PJ’s useage went down.Green is a really smart, really REALLY stubborn kid. He’s got a real chance to be big-time outstanding, and a real chance to flame out.

And that’s got value; having players with more variables but who have a chance to accomplish great things. Will Eastern fix his shooting? I don’t know but the prospect of it is what makes this crap fun.

The PJ Thompsons and Al Durhams of the game have a role, but you can’t win a national championship if you feature too many of them. A team of five Juwan Morgans and Carsen Edwards isn’t what IU or Purdue is looking at.
 
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Geez, I get it statistically and I respect your consistency, but I think you’re underrating a player’s upside and trendline.

Green, like Eastern and unlike Durham has big flaws but big upside. Troy Williams was a hot mess for two years, but by his junior year he carried IU in the NCAA tourney. That is anecdotal, but you get the theory. And that’s why as last year progressed, Green and Eastern’s useage went up, and players like Durham and Newkirk on IU and PJ’s useage went down.Green is a really smart, really REALLY stubborn kid. He’s got a real chance to be big-time outstanding, and a real chance to flame out.

And that’s got value; having players with more variables but have a chance to accomplish great things. Will Eastern fix his shooting? I don’t know but the prospect of it is what makes this crap fun.

The PJ Thompsons and Al Durhams of the game have a role, but you can’t win a national championship if you feature too many of them.
Eastern question marks are just that does not mean there not fixable. You will see once season starts. The mind set changes when you no you gonna play more.
 
Eastern question marks are just that does not mean there not fixable. You will see once season starts. The mind set changes when you no you gonna play more.

Completely agree!
He’s got some seriously good qualities already; still gotta PROVE he has fixed the flaws but if he does...
 
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Geez, I get it statistically and I respect your consistency, but I think you’re underrating a player’s upside and trendline.

Green, like Eastern and unlike Durham has big flaws but big upside. Troy Williams was a hot mess for two years, but by his junior year he carried IU in the NCAA tourney. That is anecdotal, but you get the theory. And that’s why as last year progressed, Green and Eastern’s useage went up, and players like Durham and Newkirk on IU and PJ’s useage went down.Green is a really smart, really REALLY stubborn kid. He’s got a real chance to be big-time outstanding, and a real chance to flame out.

And that’s got value; having players with more variables but who have a chance to accomplish great things. Will Eastern fix his shooting? I don’t know but the prospect of it is what makes this crap fun.

The PJ Thompsons and Al Durhams of the game have a role, but you can’t win a national championship if you feature too many of them. A team of five Juwan Morgans and Carsen Edwards isn’t what IU or Purdue is looking at.

You're right, I don't know what type of players Al Durham, Nojel Eastern, or Devonte Green will end up as when their college careers are over. I do know what types of players they have been though so that's what I go off of.

Justin Smith had pretty bad stats last season too but I'm equally optimistic about him as I am pessimistic about Green because again

1. Smith is younger
2. Smith already does some things really well so even if the skill portion of his offensive game never evolves, he can still fall back on things that will ensure he's a positive player

Justin Smith has good rebounding % and has a True Shooting % of 58.0, so he's super efficient and doesn't take bad shots. Green is just kind of bad all around. Doesn't offer anything positive as a player.
 
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/2018-ratings.html

Indiana was 10th out of 14 in defensive rating
12th in offensive rating
And 9th in net rating

They were 16-15 and 0-9 vs tournament teams.

The Year before, Crean got fired for being 18-16 and:

3rd in offensive rating
13th in defensive rating
And 5th in net rating

So Archie Miller was terrible last year and much worse than Crean. There's no way to spin that favorably for him so all the Indiana fans going around acting like he was good are complete trolls and/or know nothings.
That crean team had three players leave early. How good would IU have been last year with OG, Bryant, and Blackmon?
 
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I don't think I've even said on this site what I predict for IU next season....not that I remember. If I were to predict, I would say top 3 in the BIG. After finishing 6th last season, the only meaningful player IU lost was Robert Johnson, who I believe can be more than replaced by Romeo. Everyone else they lost was inefficient or didn't hardly play. Everyone else that's returning has another year under their belts and most importantly another year of learning what Archie is teaching, after "learning" from Crean before that.

Meanwhile, Purdue lost 4 high level starters and a whole lot of their offense. I'm not saying your incoming players are bad, but they won't easily replace what you lost immediately. I think there is plenty of legitimate reason to think Purdue will take a step back and IU a step forward.

Wasn't Purdue 3rd in the BIG last season? So if I predict they won't be in the top 4....I'm only saying they drop 2 spots. That's not exactly a ridiculous prediction. 6th to 3rd for IU isn't either. And speaking of Purdue outperforming last season....IU was picked to finish 12th in the preseason, yet they finished 6th. I think both teams overachieved.
IU tied for 6th with Penn St., but look at the difference, Penn St. was 26-13 to IUs 16-15. IU was pretty dreadful in the non conference. They might have gotten 6th, but they were surely not the 6th best team in the BIG10 last year. Maryland was also better. IU could be the 8th best team last year.
 
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That crean team had three players leave early. How good would IU have been last year with OG, Bryant, and Blackmon?
IU was always worse with Blackmon. That would not have changed, in spite of his rating out of high school. Selfish player who couldn't or wouldn't play defense to save his life.
 
IU was always worse with Blackmon. That would not have changed, in spite of his rating out of high school. Selfish player who couldn't or wouldn't play defense to save his life.
Yea, he couldn't play defense, but he was a fantastic 3pt shooter. We needed shooting in the worst way last season. Bryant and OG were the bigger early entry losses though.
 
That crean team had three players leave early. How good would IU have been last year with OG, Bryant, and Blackmon?

Well. If OG never got hurt, Crean would still be coaching at Indiana and I think he would've made the tournament last season.
 
Well. If OG never got hurt, Crean would still be coaching at Indiana and I think he would've made the tournament last season.

Agree that he may still be here if that’s the case. Thank God for small miracles. I don’t agree that he would have made the tourney. We saw what he could do with a team that couldn't shoot worth a crap in 2013-14.....and that was even with a 5* talent on the team and a good point guard. It wasn't pretty. He recognized the problem and brought in a bunch of shooters the next year, which helped considerably. Crean's offense relied heavily on 3pt shooting, if he didn't have it he was sunk.
 
Actually, thanks for the information. Not being a smart a--, I really did not know how it worked and I am glad you posted this. Often the "computer generated" was really just what I called it, an adding machine for predetermined biases. If this is different, that is good! It will be interesting to see how accurate his algorithms are at the end of the season.
it will still be very precise numbers calculated from vague data with probably low correlations between the multivariables...

It will generate interest and does have some reason to its madness I'm sure. Does he make money off this? ;) soooooooo many variables at play between humans...
 
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Yes it's pretty involved, but it's pretty flawed too based on the results. I am still working on my predictions, that I will post later; trying to improve on my almost perfect prediction from last year! I can tell you one thing, there is no way on God's green earth Purdue doesn't finish in at least the top 4 of the BIG. Torvik's computer prediction of 8th place behind Iowa, Wisky and IU - that's not going to happen!
Noted

Race Thompson starts from day 1. Who you taking out to allow that to happen....because I think he's better than 95% of the players on IU's team.
If I were an Indiana fan and Race Thompson was starting Day 1, I'd be ecstatic. He'd obviously had earned it.

95% of the team would mean the entire team, no?
so he's their best player, iyo.
Huge if true.
 
"Sir, this is a Purdue forum, I don't agree with any non-Purdue posters or contrarian points of view therefore you are simply a troll"

-Probably Boiler85 or BoiledSteel
I see that you are now picking a pointless fight with posters not even in this exchange. Is this that important to you?
 
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I see that you are now picking a pointless fight with posters not even in this exchange. Is this that important to you?

Figured I'd do everyone a favor and get it out of the way in one post before Purdue85 and BoilerSteel got in on the fun and turned this old thread from 4 pages to 8 pages in a drop of a second.
 
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Didn’t you predict MSU to finish 7th or lower? Lol

I think Michigan State will finish about 6-10 in the conference. Maybe worse if Langford and Mcquaid play more minutes than I expect or if Tillman and the freshman class plays less minutes.

If for some reason Izzo correctly benches Langford and Mcquaid and plays Xavier Tillman major minutes, then I guess they have potential to finish higher but its still so very unlikely to happen.
 
I think Michigan State will finish about 6-10 in the conference. Maybe worse if Langford and Mcquaid play more minutes than I expect or if Tillman and the freshman class plays less minutes.

If for some reason Izzo correctly benches Langford and Mcquaid and plays Xavier Tillman major minutes, then I guess they have potential to finish higher but its still so very unlikely to happen.

What? McQuaid and Langford are shooting guards. Why would Izzo bench a SG in favor of playing a second PF? Do you really know what you’re talking about? Who else is going to play 2 for MSU? Outside Winston who plays PG, Langford and McQuaid are the two best shooters on the team. MSU will be atleast preseason top 15 team, if not top 10, will finish no worse than third in the B10, and will be the preseason pick to win the B10 for a consecutive year. There isn’t a team who returns a better combination of talent and experience as the Spartans. I’ll take another horribly bad take for 400 please, Alex.
 
What? McQuaid and Langford are shooting guards. Why would Izzo bench a SG in favor of playing a second PF? Do you really know what you’re talking about? Who else is going to play 2 for MSU? Outside Winston who plays PG, Langford and McQuaid are the two best shooters on the team. MSU will be atleast preseason top 15 team, if not top 10, will finish no worse than third in the B10, and will be the preseason pick to win the B10 for a consecutive year. There isn’t a team who returns a better combination of talent and experience as the Spartans. I’ll take another horribly bad take for 400 please, Alex.

Langford and Mcquaid arent good at basketball so they shouldnt be playing.

I didnt advocate benching them specifically for Tillman, just that Tillman needs to be playing alot.

Michigan State is nowhere near a top 25 team. Why everyone considers them is baffling.

They are a lock to finish outside the top 3 in the B1G this year.
 
Langford and Mcquaid arent good at basketball so they shouldnt be playing.

I didnt advocate benching them specifically for Tillman, just that Tillman needs to be playing alot.

Michigan State is nowhere near a top 25 team. Why everyone considers them is baffling.

They are a lock to finish outside the top 3 in the B1G this year.

“Langford and McQuaid aren’t good at basketball”

What on God’s green Earth do you base that off of? Outside Winston who plays PG, what other guard do they have to play the 2? Langford is a career 40+% 3 pt shooter who averaged double figures last year. Is he an AA? No but to not think he’s a serviceable starting 2 guard is astounding. Do you just have a vendetta with the last name Langford?

“Michigan State is nowhere near a top 25 team. Why everyone considers them is baffling”

Your basketball knowledge is baffling. Everyone is laughing at you not with you. Michigan State will be a preseason top 15, possibly top 10 team and will spend the entire year in the top 25. They return 3 starters, 3 solid bench players, and bring in a top 20 class.

“They are a lock to finish outside the top 3 this year”

Name the amount and charity of your choice.
 
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“Langford and McQuaid aren’t good at basketball”

What on God’s green Earth do you base that off of? Outside Winston who plays PG, what other guard do they have to play the 2? Langford is a career 40+% 3 pt shooter who averaged double figures last year. Is he an AA? No but to not think he’s a serviceable starting 2 guard is astounding. Do you just have a vendetta with the last name Langford?

“Michigan State is nowhere near a top 25 team. Why everyone considers them is baffling”

Your basketball knowledge is baffling. Everyone is laughing at you not with you. Michigan State will be a preseason top 15, possibly top 10 team and will spend the entire year in the top 25. They return 3 starters, 3 solid bench players, and bring in a top 20 class.

“They are a lock to finish outside the top 3 this year”

Name the amount and charity of your choice.

Josh Langford has literally had a negative net rating in conference play his first two seasons. Even suggesting hes an OK player pretty much lets everyone know you dont know who he is or have never watched him play. Hes a horrible defender whose an inefficient chucker on offense. Despite playing with 4 offensive dynamos last season in Miles Bridges, JJJ, Nick Ward, and Ca$$ius Winston, he still only managed 3.3 assists per 100 possessions and averaged the second most field goal attempts per game on the team.

Imagine playing with Nick Ward(an uberefficient post monster), Miles Bridges(an offensively do it all lottery pick), Jaren Jackson JR(a guy who shot 60% from 2 40% from 3 and 80% FT), and Ca$$ius Winston(a guy who literally made 50% of his 3s on high volume) and STILL having such little basketball IQ that you end up 2nd on the team in field goal attempts.

To put that into perspective, only the 3 centers(Haas / HAARMS/ Jac Taylor) averaged less assists per 100 possessions last year than Langford did for MSU. And Langford is a guard who should have been racking up the assists playing with those 4.

Now, replace Miles Bridges and JJJ with Kenny Goins and Matt Mcquaid - how in the world is Michigan State going to finish in the top 3 in the conference?


Only way its even possible is if both 1. the freshman are really good and 2. Izzo is smart enough to play them over Langford, McQuaid, and Goins - something he wasnt smart enough to do in the tournament last season playing Carter over JJJ, who was one of the best freshmen this conference has ever seen.
 
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I don't like MSU but I don't think there's anyway they finish anywhere from 6th through 10th in conference play. With what they have returning and what they add they'll finish somewhere in the top 4 of the B1G.
 
I don't like MSU but I don't think there's anyway they finish anywhere from 6th through 10th in conference play. With what they have returning and what they add they'll finish somewhere in the top 4 of the B1G.

Theyre returning one of the worst perimeter defensive trios in the nation.

Nick Ward is a great offensive talent, but he played less than 20 total minutes in 10 out of the last 11 games for Michigan State last season because he can be exploited in ball screens on defense.

So Izzo was purposely keeping Nick Ward off the floor for over half the game because he was being exploited so much.


People dont understand just how great JJJ was.

They returned 4 guys from the same team that was 58th in offense and 37th in defense and by adding JJJ they jumped up to the 13th best offense and 10th best defense.

With Jaren Jackson on the floor, opponents only converted 34% of 2 point attempts.

To put that into perspective, opponents converted 44.1% of their 2s in 2017 without JJJ and 38.4% total in 2018.

I remember reading that when JJJ and Miles Bridges were both off the floor, MSU was actually outscored. That is a YIKES stat for them entering this season. They are far and away being overrated by casual fan writers who put out preseason top 25s with no actual analysis.



After analyzing Illinois team and newcomers, I am actually confident theyre a better team than Michigan State and have much more potential than the Spartans.
 
Theyre returning one of the worst perimeter defensive trios in the nation.

Nick Ward is a great offensive talent, but he played less than 20 total minutes in 10 out of the last 11 games for Michigan State last season because he can be exploited in ball screens on defense.

So Izzo was purposely keeping Nick Ward off the floor for over half the game because he was being exploited so much.


People dont understand just how great JJJ was.

They returned 4 guys from the same team that was 58th in offense and 37th in defense and by adding JJJ they jumped up to the 13th best offense and 10th best defense.

With Jaren Jackson on the floor, opponents only converted 34% of 2 point attempts.

To put that into perspective, opponents converted 44.1% of their 2s in 2017 without JJJ and 38.4% total in 2018.

I remember reading that when JJJ and Miles Bridges were both off the floor, MSU was actually outscored. That is a YIKES stat for them entering this season. They are far and away being overrated by casual fan writers who put out preseason top 25s with no actual analysis.



After analyzing Illinois team and newcomers, I am actually confident theyre a better team than Michigan State and have much more potential than the Spartans.
You think Illinois will be better than MSU.

Matt, you blow my mind sometimes.
 
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You think Illinois will be better than MSU.

Matt, you blow my mind sometimes.

I genuinely believe that. I get the sense people think Im trolling or something wheb it comes to my thoughts on MSU but I am not.

MSU's struggles are really going to surprise some people this year and after looking at them closely Illinois is going to really good, I think.
 
I genuinely believe that. I get the sense people think Im trolling or something wheb it comes to my thoughts on MSU but I am not.

MSU's struggles are really going to surprise some people this year and after looking at them closely Illinois is going to really good, I think.
I agree with you on Illinois, but I still think Izzo will have the Sparties rolling.
 
Can someone explain the infatuation with Illinois? They return 4 players total. One of those 4 was the 10th man. One of those 4 was a backup role player. Then there was a stud in Frazier.... they only bring in 1 instant impact player. They have a transfer big from the Power House that is Kent State. He happens to be the only player projected to play over 6'6"...

I have Illinois at best finishing 11th. That's significantly lower than MSU who I have finishing top 5.
 
I predict...ice cream.
tenor.gif
 
I just look at

Trent Frazier 35% from 3
Aaron Jordan 46%
Kipper Nichols 38%

Andres Feliz shot 42% from 3 at his previous stop. Ive seen video of him and he is awesome. His handle is so tight and controlled and he can get to wherever hes trying to get because hes so quick. Had 207 assists to only 76 turnovers. Averaged 20 points per game.

You surround him with

Frazier
Ayo
Kipper Nichols

Have Aaron Jordan as the first sub off the bench since Ayo Dosunmu, Trent Frazier, and Andres Feliz can all play point.

That lineup is going to be a matchup nightmare for teams when they are on defenseand create a ton of turnovers against opposing offenses.

If you go look at the numbers, Leron Black and Michael Finke especially were terrible defensively for them last season. Kipper Nichols was their best defender and he showed a ton of promise on offense so an increased role for him is a very good thing going into his junior year.

Ayo is regarded as a defensive terror and will fit Underwoods high pressure system like a glove.

Theres a lot to love about Illinois if they can stay healthy. The center position is obviously a hige question mark for them with the Adobis de whatever and this Samba w
kane mystery box, but I like that Nichols had such a good rebound % since it will allow Illinois to play small.

Looking at them offensively last year, they just turned it over way too much, voiding out all the turnovers they forced themselves defensively and allowed other teams easy points.

I think this Feliz guy, along with their freshman phenom Ayo(who played very well during his time with USA basketball according to reports) is going to remedy that and youre going to see a very efficient offense that can shoot the 3 from 4 positions but also get to the rim with multiple guys and a team that forces a tonof turnovers again.


They arent deep so this is all predicated on them staying healthy, but theres a lot to love about Illinois this season.

They for sure have not just better guards than Michigan State, they have guards who are vastly superior to the Spartans guards by a country mile.
 
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