Haarms is one of the most disruptive defensive players in the country.
Even with home team bias, I think he is a bit underrated on this site.
2018-2019 Basketball Predictions
- Thread starter B-Westy
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Haarms is one of the most disruptive defensive players in the country.
Even with home team bias, I think he is a bit underrated on this site.
If he makes a big leap with his offensive game during the offseason, the Boilers will have at least two bonafide double-digit scorers this season.
Agree this is similar situation and luckily this team has a dynamic player like Carsen that the '12-'13 didn't have to build around.
I also think Beadreaux will really help in adding experience to the front court. His addition was huge.
I don't think I've even said on this site what I predict for IU next season....not that I remember. If I were to predict, I would say top 3 in the BIG. After finishing 6th last season, the only meaningful player IU lost was Robert Johnson, who I believe can be more than replaced by Romeo. Everyone else they lost was inefficient or didn't hardly play. Everyone else that's returning has another year under their belts and most importantly another year of learning what Archie is teaching, after "learning" from Crean before that.
Meanwhile, Purdue lost 4 high level starters and a whole lot of their offense. I'm not saying your incoming players are bad, but they won't easily replace what you lost immediately. I think there is plenty of legitimate reason to think Purdue will take a step back and IU a step forward.
Wasn't Purdue 3rd in the BIG last season? So if I predict they won't be in the top 4....I'm only saying they drop 2 spots. That's not exactly a ridiculous prediction. 6th to 3rd for IU isn't either. And speaking of Purdue outperforming last season....IU was picked to finish 12th in the preseason, yet they finished 6th. I think both teams overachieved.
Hmmmm, you are using place in the league as a measure. You finished 9-9 in the league and one game above .500 overall. That’s not very impressive and in a normal year would get you around 8-9th place.
Now let me ask you. If you won two more games next year and go 11-7 and still finish 6th, will you consider that an improvement or not?
Once again, Purdue won 30 games last year. The odds of doing that well again are unlikely no matter how much we lose. Of course we should take a step back. The question is, with the gap between the two teams last year, is our loss and your perceived gain enough to make the difference you expect? Do you know how well all of your new guys will play? Do you know your returnees will improve? Do you know Miller can win in the league? Can he beat Izzo? Has he ever? Painter? Beilein?
So many questions you assume will end up going your way, yet with zero to base it on other than hope.
Sure, IU has questions, but I would rather trust the guys they have that actually played last year, rather than Sasha, Wheeler and freshman that aren't as highly regarded as the ones IU has. Indiana has enough depth that they only need to rely on Romeo from the freshman class and allow the rest to come along slowly and add help here and there. Purdue needs Wheeler to be good, they need Williams or Dow to be good up front, they need Cline to take a huge step up and Nojel as well. There's no evidence any of them can do that, other than maybe Nojel, I do like his upside quite a bit.
Indiana sorely missed having a playmaker last year who could create offense and guys who could knock down a shot when open. If they had even one of those things last season, their record would have been drastically different in my opinion. Romeo fills a huge need as a playmaker, and if the newcomers can shoot decently or returners slightly improve, that is much improved as well. I just feel like Indiana's deficiencies have been addressed very well. Purdue lost a lot, and there needs to be many things that go right in order for the newcomers and returnees to fill that void.
Anyway, we're not going to agree, so we'll just wait to see what happens. My prediction is IU top 3 and Purdue outside the top 4.
It’s odd that you keep bringing up Purdue here and even more odd that you say Romeo will easily replace Robert Johnson. Do you realize that JJJ, who won freshman of the year in the league last year averaged 4 points a game less than Robert Johnson. As a matter of fact, none of the all freshman team last year outaverged Johnson.
You’re clearly a fanboy with unrealistic expectations. I notice you didn’t touch the place versus record question.
Please do come back in February so we can all enjoy a livable or two.
Stats aren't everything. As I said, the big improvement from Romeo is that he can create his own shot. He can make plays. RJ was mainly a spot up shooter, and not a consistent one. I admit Indiana will miss his defense though.
No, I didn't touch it, because no one knows how good the BIG will be this season either. I honestly still don't think it will be that great. There's no way of knowing how record will translate to conference ranking, it changes every year. What I do think is that Indiana will be better than enough teams in the BIG to be 3rd. No idea what that record will be.
I'll be here, it will be a fun season.
Who is your starting five? You say you won’t have to rely on the new guys other than Romeo. How is that possible? Do you have a center? All I see as returnees is a few guards and a few forwards. Your best player will likely have to play center, not his position and he isn’t a threat from deep while you lost your best long range shooter by a long shot.
Who are these experienced players you claim and what exactly is special about them? What have they done?
I'll wager a beer of your choice that PU finishes higher than IU.
As long as Deron Davis is fully recovered from injury, he would start at the 5. If not, either Juan plays the 5, as he did much of last year and did well at, or grad transfer Evan Fitzner plays center. He's shot over 40% from 3 every season and has experience. Only reason his stats dropped the last two years is because he was playing behind All American jock landale. He started every game for St Mary's as a freshman and did well. If Juwan plays the 5, Justin Smith plays the 4. Smith had a solid freshman season and is ready to step up even bigger this year. McRoberts likely plays the 3, unless a newcomer can displace him. If he's displaced, then I feel good about the freshman who takes it from him, likely Jerome Hunter if anybody. If he keeps the spot, he'll continue to be a great defender. He shot well from 3 last year, he just needs to have more confidence to take more shots. Romeo at the 2, and either Devente Green or Al Durham at PG. Of course, if Phinisee comes in and plays very well, he could take that spot. Al and Devonte are both talented, Devente is uber talented, although inconsistent and tries to do too much sometimes. If Archie can reign him in, he could be one of the best PGs in the league. If not, next man up.
That's really the most exciting thing, if anyone isn't putting forth the effort necessary or not playing well, there are legitimately 14 guys on this team that can play, everyone has to earn their spot or have it taken. It's nice to have options. Race Thompson is a top 100 recruit who could be great after redshirting to get stronger, Jake Forrester or Clifton Moore could have an impact in the paint. Damezi Anderson could really help our shooting if he's strong enough to play. Jerome Hunter could live up to his ranking and be a real threat as a freshman. There's so many options. Last year there weren't. If someone wasn't playing well or not being smart, the only other option was another inefficient player or just keep him on the court. This year there is competition and you better be good or someone else will be.
My prediction would be IU around 25th, give or take 10. Purdue around 45th, give or take 10
IU has 3 pieces you feel real good about coming in. Morgan, Langford, and Hunter. The others are "hope they really improve or can contribute" as freshmen. Personally, I think Morgan and Langford are overrated. If I was offered one player from that team, I would take Hunter and it isn't even close.
IU will be ok. 35 +-12 is fair if they can stay healthy and Romeo doesn't think the I in IU stands for individual.
Purdue us Carsen. Even with the other question marks, that alone should be good enough for fringe 25. Sasha and Wheeler have impressed in practices and Williams and Dow look Big ready already. Purdue has plenty of talent, the question is can they get the chemistry right. Those 4 seniors started a lot of games and this team will have a different makeup. I like Eastern over any of the IU second year players. I like EB over the IU transfer. Haarms has a chance to Big all Big defensive squad. 25 +-10 for Purdue is fair providing everybody stays healthy.
IU ahead of Purdue, in my opinion, would require worst case for Purdue and best case for IU.
That's all fair. I believe too that Purdue has talent, and it could turn into something, I just think they have more questions than IU does. I feel good about Morgan, Langford, McRoberts, Smith and Devonte (mainly because he started figuring it out at the end of last season, and the word from the summer workouts is that he is taking things more seriously). I also feel good about Deron, as long as he's healthy and ready to go. The rest are questions mainly because they're new or haven't done much yet. But that's enough for me to feel good about the season, if anyone else breaks out then it's bonus.
Carsen is great, but I still have some questions about whether he will be as effective without the array of shooters and a post man around him that he had last season. Maybe he will....but it's not a sure thing. The rest of the team has promise, but are mainly question marks.
4 months we will all no what both teams will look like once seasons starts and play out. Yes carsen had tones of shooters around him and they still do have plenty of shooters around him but the team makeup is different defensively and offensively and it’s style will suit how carsen likes to play a more up tempo faster pace game. Indiana has several players who played more min towards the end of the season and did quite well so they bring back some good pieces to start season with. I sure hope Langford live up to all the pressure that would be put upon him. Hunter my son played against that player my son senior year at Lebron James showcase event Evsnston won but that kid is probably your best freshman thst may be able to have an immediate impact kid can play. Purdue brings back 5 players with enough experience that played min in the big 10 championship game and Nojel played well that weekend stopping Tony Carr and played well against Michigan with extended min. All 5 played games leading to sweet 16 loss but overall has more experience that every player on Indiana team as of now. As season nears those 4/5 will have different roles play more min and have chemistry already so Carsen won’t be left on an island by himself as I see it. We can all speculate what the team will do but until season begins these are all good points being made but in the end when season starts every opinion, assessment how a team will fair will be determined as season plays out. I’m so looking forward to the season bcuz its gonna be a season that Purdue might end up surpassing many expectations.
All good points. Both teams have potential, both teams have questions, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I'm excited to watch!
Cheese.....I appreciate your level headed posts and you are one IU fan I haven't ignored that frequents this board, which says alot, lol. That being said, you are not going to find many that agree with you here on the Purdue board about IU next year.
I see IU as one of the top 3 or 4 talented rosters in B1G next year (along with Maryland, UM, MSU), but there are some huge questions about PG and chemistry for a .500 team that did not make a post season tournament a year ago. If everything goes right they could finish in the top 3, but you could say the same for Purdue and a lot of other teams.
Thanks, I’m a homer, but I try to be a rational, non-annoying homer. lol
I agree, PG is the biggest question, I think. I’m just glad that we have 3 PG options, all we need is for one of them to make the jump we hope for and the others to be serviceable backups. My money is on Devonte, but I really have no idea how Phinisee will be as a freshman either. I think Devonte had a hard time reigning in his “New York City” ball last year, and Archie benched him a lot for it. But Archie has said that they had a talk after the season, Devonte really took it to heart and has a changed focus and intensity. I hope that’s true and we see him reach his potential this year, because he has all the talent and athleticism to succeed.
Word in the street is Davis won’t be 100% until January of at all.
So with Green, Langford, McRoberts, Smith and Morgan...that’s 34.4 points a game and 4.2 assists returning. The rest is speculation and hope.
Didn’t you say you had a prediction page? Is this how you predict? You at first said the new guys won’t be needed other than Romeo and then when I ask for an explanation, you talk up the new guys. That’s odd.
Just for reference, Purdue returns 31.2 points per game. Really not that big a gap now is it?
Juwan Morgan is an all conference caliber player. He's legit. Justin Smith is very promising and a potential star.
However, outside of them, none of the other returning players for Indiana are good. They range from average(Mcroberts) to below average (Al Durham) to terrible(Devonte Green) to inexperienced mystery boxes (Clifton Moore and everyone else).
Phinisee is not the caliber of guard who should be playing major minutes on a high major as a freshman. He should play sparingly but will probably be forced to play big minutes.
That leaves Romeo Langford, who was wildly inefficient and bad in AAU play his last year, as the tweet I linked in the Romeo thread shows. Awful stats vs other high schoolers.
So Indiana is really going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. I think that's for sure. For them to be good, they'll need to figure out defense this season, something they never did figure out last year under Archie.
However, outside of them, none of the other returning players for Indiana are good. They range from average(Mcroberts) to below average (Al Durham) to terrible(Devonte Green) to inexperienced mystery boxes (Clifton Moore and everyone else).
Phinisee is not the caliber of guard who should be playing major minutes on a high major as a freshman. He should play sparingly but will probably be forced to play big minutes.
That leaves Romeo Langford, who was wildly inefficient and bad in AAU play his last year, as the tweet I linked in the Romeo thread shows. Awful stats vs other high schoolers.
So Indiana is really going to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. I think that's for sure. For them to be good, they'll need to figure out defense this season, something they never did figure out last year under Archie.
Purdue had some adjustments and chemistry issues during Big Dogs first year in 92-93. We made the tournament but were 9-9 in conference (5th place). IU could be similar this year. Luckily Big Dog came back for his junior year and we went on a 3 year Big 10 title run due to his impact. I don’t think Romeo comes back for a second year.
Imagine thinking your team overachieved with a 16-15 record including blowout losses to Indiana St. and IPFW
IU will be fine offensively. This roster fits the Pack Line defense a lot better than last years roster. Even last year, the defense at the end of the season was night and day better than the defense to start the year.
Nobody who is projected to play major minutes shoots well. Shooting will be a major area of concern for Indiana again this year, as it was last season.
Hmm....that’s some interesting math you’re doing. So Purdue’s total points returning is literally all 6 returning players. Your sum for IU is only the 4 guys you listed. The difference is that we have more than that returning, plus a “supposedly” better class coming in. Anyway, done arguing with you. Both teams have potential to be good, I just think IU has less questions than Purdue does and more talent. We’ll see before long, I’ll leave it at that.
Imagine thinking those blowout losses happened early in the season with a team still learning a whole new system with a new coach. Also imagine that the definition of overachieve is “to do better than expected”. I never said they had a good season, I said they did better than projected. But spin it however you feel makes me look worse.
It doesn't matter if I'm coaching or Bob Knight, a day playing in a new system or an entire year, there are no excuses for being destroyed by Indiana St. and IPFW on your home court. But IU fans keep finding new ones apparently. 16-15 is better than projected? How I am spinning it?
Uh, list who is returning and their stats then. If I am wrong, show me.
You say you come here to discuss, why do you keep saying we shall leave it at that?
You say IU has less questions than Purdue, how so? Purdue has the best player on either team. Purdue has the best defender in either team. Purdue has 5 players returning with Bigten experience and a 6th with D1 experience. That’s experience actually winning games against tourney teams including two wins against the NCAA runner up.
The players returning for Purdue played few minutes last year. That’s doesn’t mean they can’t score as their percentages show. It means they weren’t needed. Compare that to McRoberts who played over 20 minutes a game and averaged under 3 points a game.
Now try to explain it without using any unknowns or predictions of players we don’t have any data to use when comparing.
I said I’ll leave it at that because I’m tired of arguing with you. Neither one of us will convince the other, the only thing that can settle this is basketball games. Those can’t come soon enough.
Tired of arguing about it? Seriously? Why are you still posting in a thread discussing predictions for the upcoming season?
You’re truly boggling.
My take is you can’t come up with anything other than speculation about guys that have never played a single game to support your predictions. That’s fine if true, but why come to our board, drop little turds on it for weeks and then get defensive in a simple discussion?
Strange decision making skills you have there.
I predict by mid year the IU fans will be wondering why the administration let another Butler coach get away. But, I am sure that’s just me.
In my opinion you are cherrypicking a bit:
Al Durham is “below average”, but as a freshman his stats were arguably a bit better than Nojel Eastern last year; far better assist to turnover, ppg, and ft%.
DeVonte Green is “terrible “, but his stats were far, far better than Eastern last year. Don’t get me wrong; I think that Eastern is talented and can be very, very good. I’m just not sure why you don’t also see the potential in a kid like Green.
As for the “no one else”, Jerome Hunter is the composite #50 freshman in the class (and I think Damezi was also barely in the top100) and Evan Fitzner is a two year-plus starter and career 40%+ three point shoot on NCAA tourney St. Mary’s teams.
Romeo? I haven’t researched it but I’d be curious to see if ANY top five national recruits have had freshman years where they weren’t big time impact players.
Add Fitzner, Hunter and Romeo to Morgan, Smith, etc and IU has a pretty strong core.
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Per 100 Possession Stats in conference play
Devonte Green
O rating 96.6
Net rating -7
20.8 points on 18.1 fg attempts 1.15 points per shot attempt
7.2 assists
4.9 turnovers
2.6 steals
0.5 blocks
4.8 rebounds
.498 True Shooting %
13.4 PER
Nojel Eastern
Orating 104.6 D rating 100.4
Net rating +4.2
14.6 points on 11.5 fg attempts 1.27 points 0er shot attempt
4.5 assists
3.4 turnovers
2.2 steals
1.1 blocks
13.5 rebounds
.490 True Shooting %
13.4 PER
Devonte Green chucked up a ton of shots despite being wildly inefficient. Nojels stats also resemble that of a power forward, that's a good number of rebounds per 100 possessions. Nojel was a much more efficient player at 104. O rating compared to 96.6 for Green (96.6 is just laughably bad)
There's 2 differences
1. Nojel Easterrn was a true frosh while Devonte Green was playing in his second season
2. Nojel Eastern was elite defensively while Green was terrible on defense as well, as evidenced by their net ratings.
Green is nowhere close to the caliber of player of Nojel Easter .
IU finished sixth and didn't beat a ranked team in a top heavy B10 so how did they overachieve with all those four stars?. Below 4th, teams in the league last year were pretty weak. I believe this year, the league's going to be a lot stronger from 1st through 10th.
Race Thompson starts from day 1. Who you taking out to allow that to happen....because I think he's better than 95% of the players on IU's team.
Was at IWU watching my grandson play today and was talking to a member of the staff about why Tonnegle was still at IWU having won two NAIA titles and was told he was called by IU before they hired Archie. Tonnegle loves IWU, has been called by several D1 schools, and won't leave. Guess Arch was not that high on the list after all.
Deal....Save your dimes.
I've said all along that with the addition of Evan, those who redshirted, and the incoming recruits Purdue will be a better offensive team. And we already know that PU plays in your shorts defense.Prepare to be surprised.
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