2018-2019 Basketball Predictions

[mathboy]

Actually, yes. I expect a top 3 finish in the BIG, and a S16 NCAA run. If the Gods of chance are with us we might get further in the NCAA's, but that is really not predictable now.

Carsen is going to feast on many teams, and those he struggles with will have to deal with Boudreaux and Wheeler. Yep, I'm bullish on next year's squad.

There are way too many new players with unknown capabilities to make a defensible, unarguable prediction of success. There are plenty of clues about the potential of next year's team, but few certainties. Small inflections one way or another can make large changes in the outcome.

Given all that, I find it more fun to predict a positive outcome. At this point there is no concrete proof that supports it, but being positive about your team is an important part of being a fan and supporter of your team.

 

[Mgkcbb]

https://247sports.com/college/iowa/...-Basketball-2018-19-Power-Rankings-118884374/

Small writeups on each team - what they return, lose, and bring in.

 

[ChoiceBeef]

https://247sports.com/college/iowa/...-Basketball-2018-19-Power-Rankings-118884374/

Small writeups on each team - what they return, lose, and bring in.

Love that no one has any level of optimism for Illinois, Rutgers or Northwestern.

Nebraska is the wild card team. I can see them competing for the league and I can see them finish 13th. I don’t have a lot of faith in Tim Miles.

Should be an interesting year.

 

[beenther1s]

1. Purdue
2. Michigan
3.Nebraska
4..Michigan St
5. Maryland
6. Minnesota
7. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State
9. Penn State
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Rutgers
13.Northwestern
14. Indiana

It's America, I can predict anyway I want.

 

[nagemj02]

1. Purdue
2. Michigan
3.Nebraska
4..Michigan St
5. Maryland
6. Nebraska
7. Minnesota
8. Wisconsin
9. Ohio State
10. Penn State
11. Iowa
12. Illinois
13. Rutgers
14. Indiana

It's America, I can predict anyway I want.

This is the most accurate prediction yet, and yes, Nebraska will finish both 3rd and 6th.

 

[beenther1s]

This is the most accurate prediction yet, and yes, Nebraska will finish both 3rd and 6th.

Slight modification

 

[nagemj02]

Slight modification

I liked the way you had it.

 

[IndySouthsider]

Purdue gonna be better than you think watched them practice gonna surprise many

I think they have the best player in college

 

[Treed1967]

I think they have the best player in college

That’s possible even the best player needs a supporting cast and he has that around him.

 

[Wolegib]

I'm going with 20-25 victories. 3rd in BIG10 and a sweet 16 . Because of their youth, I'm expecting a few losses early, and a couple of losses late that we should win. I'm also expecting we'll pull off a couple of upset wins.

Sure we lost 4 great seniors, but MSU, Mich, PSU and Maryland also lost key players.

 

[KisteK]

Torvik sees the B1G '19

(9) MSU
(19) Wisky
(22) Indiana
(23) Michigan
(30) Iowa
(31) Nebraska
(38) Maryland
(41) Purdue
(42) Ohio State
(43) Illinois
(45) Northwestern
(53) Penn State
(68) Minnesota
(94) Rutgers
http://www.barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10&year=2019
I usually enjoy his rankings, but this leaves me scratching my head..

imo
Tier 1
Michigan, Maryland, MSU, Nebraska
Tier 2
Wisky, Indy, Purdue, Iowa
Tier 3
Ohio State, Penn State, Minny
Tier 4
Ill, NW, Rutgers

Tiers 1&2 make the Dance
(pull your head out your ass, Fran)
Tier 3 could still see a post B1G post season
Tier 4, ah.. no

B1G looks much improved.. just in time for us here in Not Big Ten Land to miss out on the season.

 

[mathboy]

Torvik sees the B1G '19

(9) MSU
(19) Wisky
(22) Indiana
(23) Michigan
(30) Iowa
(31) Nebraska
(38) Maryland
(41) Purdue
(42) Ohio State
(43) Illinois
(45) Northwestern
(53) Penn State
(68) Minnesota
(94) Rutgers
http://www.barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10&year=2019
I usually enjoy his rankings, but this leaves me scratching my head..

imo
Tier 1
Michigan, Maryland, MSU, Nebraska
Tier 2
Wisky, Indy, Purdue, Iowa
Tier 3
Ohio State, Penn State, Minny
Tier 4
Ill, NW, Rutgers

Tiers 1&2 make the Dance
(pull your head out your ass, Fran)
Tier 3 could still see a post B1G post season
Tier 4, ah.. no

B1G looks much improved.. just in time for us here in Not Big Ten Land to miss out on the season.

Whisky at 19 and Iowa at 30? Makes you wonder what this guy was smoking when he wrote this article. He lumped the rest of the BIG in the 30s & 40s, more or less. Seems like he knew those were good teams, but had no idea about the details of each. Bet he basically picked them out of a hat.

 

[KisteK]

Whisky at 19 and Iowa at 30? Makes you wonder what this guy was smoking when he wrote this article. He lumped the rest of the BIG in the 30s & 40s, more or less. Seems like he knew those were good teams, but had no idea about the details of each. Bet he basically picked them out of a hat.

It's all computer, I believe.. which is why I also posted my opinion.
Just another way to pump out predictions.

 

[cheeseman18]

Whisky at 19 and Iowa at 30? Makes you wonder what this guy was smoking when he wrote this article. He lumped the rest of the BIG in the 30s & 40s, more or less. Seems like he knew those were good teams, but had no idea about the details of each. Bet he basically picked them out of a hat.

It's all computer, I believe.. which is why I also posted my opinion.
Just another way to pump out predictions.

Yes, it's computer based, not just an opinion article. He tries to quantify what incoming freshman will do based on their rankings, how much returning players will improve based on their former rankings, college stats and age, and then computes each team's defense based on history of last year's team, returning minutes and the coach's defensive history. It's pretty involved.

 

[KisteK]

Yes, it's computer based, not just an opinion article. He tries to quantify what incoming freshman will do based on their rankings, how much returning players will improve based on their former rankings, college stats and age, and then computes each team's defense based on history of last year's team, returning minutes and the coach's defensive history. It's pretty involved.

Because high school rankings miss and/or players over develop (or fail to), it cannot be used as a be-all, of course.. Just another site I like to look at when comparing my predictions pre and post season.

 

[mathboy]

Yes, it's computer based, not just an opinion article. He tries to quantify what incoming freshman will do based on their rankings, how much returning players will improve based on their former rankings, college stats and age, and then computes each team's defense based on history of last year's team, returning minutes and the coach's defensive history. It's pretty involved.

I fully understand “computer based”. The guy uses a computer program to add up his biased opinions. ‘Nuff said.

 

[meenie]

Carsen is the best player in the country.

 

[ddmills333]

1- PURDUE
2- I
3- N
4- D
5- I
6- A
7- N
8- A
9- S
10-U
11-C
12-K
13-S
14-!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[cheeseman18]

I fully understand “computer based”. The guy uses a computer program to add up his biased opinions. ‘Nuff said.

Lol think what you want. I just listened to a podcast he was on where he explained his system. All of his algorithms are set, once he pulls the necessary data in, it outputs the rankings automatically. No opinion included. In fact he admits that he really doesn't agree with a lot of the stuff it shows

 

[mathboy]

Lol think what you want. I just listened to a podcast he was on where he explained his system. All of his algorithms are set, once he pulls the necessary data in, it outputs the rankings automatically. No opinion included. In fact he admits that he really doesn't agree with a lot of the stuff it shows

Actually, thanks for the information. Not being a smart a--, I really did not know how it worked and I am glad you posted this. Often the "computer generated" was really just what I called it, an adding machine for predetermined biases. If this is different, that is good! It will be interesting to see how accurate his algorithms are at the end of the season.

 

[cheeseman18]

Actually, thanks for the information. Not being a smart a--, I really did not know how it worked and I am glad you posted this. Often the "computer generated" was really just what I called it, an adding machine for predetermined biases. If this is different, that is good! It will be interesting to see how accurate his algorithms are at the end of the season.

I definitely recommend checking out his site and the FAQ, where he explains what goes into his system. It's pretty interesting stuff, especially for an Engineer like myself. haha I actually do my own college basketball predictions and rankings as well, because I love math and using excel. Unfortunately, I don't have enough programming experience to do it any other way other than with excel, which is a bit limiting. I just started a website where I embed my game prediction tool, rankings and all that jazz. I'm a nerd, but I love it.

 

[Mgkcbb]

I definitely recommend checking out his site and the FAQ, where he explains what goes into his system. It's pretty interesting stuff, especially for an Engineer like myself. haha I actually do my own college basketball predictions and rankings as well, because I love math and using excel. Unfortunately, I don't have enough programming experience to do it any other way other than with excel, which is a bit limiting. I just started a website where I embed my game prediction tool, rankings and all that jazz. I'm a nerd, but I love it.

Link your site and I'll give it a visit

 

[cheeseman18]

Link your site and I'll give it a visit

https://cheesepredictions.wordpress.com/

I'll say again, I'm not a programmer, so my site aesthetic leaves a lot to be desired, and embedded excel sheets are a bit bulky, but it works well enough to get by.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

1. Michigan
2. Michigan State
3. Purdue
4. Maryland
5. Nebraska
6. Indiana
7. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State
9. Penn State
10. Minnesota
11. Northwestern
12. Iowa
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois

IU will be overrated all year. They have no shooters and will play a slow, plodding style of offense that won't allow Romeo to display his full skill set (he's overrated too BTW). Morgan will be good but other than that I think they'll be a pretty similar team to last year and Purdue will sweep them.

1. Meetchicken Best coach in the league and one of the top coaches in the game
2. Purdue Yep, I think they're that talented
3. Nebraska Corn boys should be really good
4. Meetchicken State Over-rated early
5. OSU The new Butler
6. Wisky Every body back Gaar trying to erase The Count's shadow
7. PSU Could go much higher
8. IU Could be a sixth place team and will finally make the dance, but with an early exit
9. Maryland Look for a new coach next year
10. Illinois Still think they're going to surprise a lot of folks
11. Iowa Lot's of talent..bad coach
12. Northwestern
13. Minny I know, I know....lots of talent coming back
14. Rutgers MAC school at best

 

[TwinDegrees2]

https://cheesepredictions.wordpress.com/

I'll say again, I'm not a programmer, so my site aesthetic leaves a lot to be desired, and embedded excel sheets are a bit bulky, but it works well enough to get by.

Your IU bias must be a built in factor.

 

[HoosierfanJM]

Curious for those (not just Twin) that are predicting either Penn State or Illinois anywhere near the top ten of the conference next year:

1. Who, if anyone, do you think are Illinois best players over 6'6" (I can't think of even one that is anything less than a pipe dream to be effective)
2. Who, if anyone, do you think are Penn State's best players under 6'5"?

Mind you, I would give a positive projection of either of these schools some credibility if either of them had (I'll put it in PU/IU terms) a player such as Nojel Eastern or Justin Smith, both of whom are talented, highly thought of, and showed real promise in limited minutes last year. I don't see anyone potentially serviceable as a big at Illinois or as a ball handler at Penn State.

Seems to me that both of those teams and their coaches are gonna have a sad situation.

 

[StickPurdue]

Same as I posted a couple weeks ago in the other thread asking the same thing:

1. Michigan
2. Purdue (Boogie-Player of the Year)
3. IU
4. MSU
5. Nebraska
6. OSU
7. Maryland
8. Wisconsin
9. Penn State
10. Illinois
11. Iowa
12. Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14. Northwestern

Swap OSU and IU and I would take this list (for the top 9 anyway). Think there will be a battle for the basement and it's anybody's game.

 

[cheeseman18]

Your IU bias must be a built in factor.

Lol, in what part? The preseason predictions? Again, it's all based on stats, no bias, and most of the preseason stuff is borrowed from Bart Torvik, because he has access to some data that I don't. Torvik also has Indiana at #22 preseason, just like mine. Preseason projections are hit or miss, take them with a grain of salt.

However, if you look at my rankings from the end of last season, I had Purdue at #9 and IU at #97, no bias there. I even had Purdue at #1 a couple times during the course of last season.

 

[KisteK]

https://cheesepredictions.wordpress.com/

I'll say again, I'm not a programmer, so my site aesthetic leaves a lot to be desired, and embedded excel sheets are a bit bulky, but it works well enough to get by.

Like the site, cheese. Will be peeping both during and after the season.
Best of luck.

 

[Mgkcbb]

https://cheesepredictions.wordpress.com/

I'll say again, I'm not a programmer, so my site aesthetic leaves a lot to be desired, and embedded excel sheets are a bit bulky, but it works well enough to get by.

Good site. I've bookmarked it and will add it to my rotation.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Curious for those (not just Twin) that are predicting either Penn State or Illinois anywhere near the top ten of the conference next year:

1. Who, if anyone, do you think are Illinois best players over 6'6" (I can't think of even one that is anything less than a pipe dream to be effective)
2. Who, if anyone, do you think are Penn State's best players under 6'5"?

Mind you, I would give a positive projection of either of these schools some credibility if either of them had (I'll put it in PU/IU terms) a player such as Nojel Eastern or Justin Smith, both of whom are talented, highly thought of, and showed real promise in limited minutes last year. I don't see anyone potentially serviceable as a big at Illinois or as a ball handler at Penn State.

Seems to me that both of those teams and their coaches are gonna have a sad situation.

I'll answer....The Illini have recruited four or five top 100 four star players....from PG to two or three post players including 6'11, 6'9", etc., along with some 3's who will be solid role players. They have experience coming back, and talent coming in. And I think Underwood will rise to be one of the best in the league. Underwood's tenure at Oklahoma State was unusually short — just one season — but it also provided evidence that he can orchestrate a quick turnaround. The Cowboys went from a 12-win team in 2015-16 to a 20-win team that advanced to the NCAA tournament this season with one of the nation's highest-scoring offenses.

And, in regard to size, though he's no Bob Knight, if you remember Knight was tinkering with the idea if you have all players who werevery athletic and 6'5" to 6'7" and who could play multiple positions, you didn't need that big man. That's the one thing I wish we could have seen from Bob.

As for PSU, The Nittany Lions ran rampant through the NIT. They were a club with more than enough talent to earn an NCAA Tournament berth but didn't because of a weak pre-season schedule. This year, they're playing top teams pre-season with only one real dog. I'm very impressed with DANIIL KASATKIN from Russia...6'7" guard who can play point or SG. Mike Watkins returns from the knee injury and if he's healed physically and mentally, he's the real deal and a beast on the boards. Chambers, in my opinion, has done a great job at a totally football committed school. I ranked both in the bottom half, but believe both could finish higher.

Only time will tell if those of us picking PSU and the Illini to do well are right.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Lol, in what part? The preseason predictions? Again, it's all based on stats, no bias, and most of the preseason stuff is borrowed from Bart Torvik, because he has access to some data that I don't. Torvik also has Indiana at #22 preseason, just like mine. Preseason projections are hit or miss, take them with a grain of salt.

However, if you look at my rankings from the end of last season, I had Purdue at #9 and IU at #97, no bias there. I even had Purdue at #1 a couple times during the course of last season.

So what are your main predictors? I'm not saying you won't be right, but I just think IU will be loaded with talent but as I've said before there will not be enough balls in Bloomington.

 

[Mgkcbb]

So I've been watching this replay of MSU vs Duke last season and I am just as confident about MSU not being a top 4 team as I am about any other prediction about any other team in the conference. They're obviously drawing stone cold dead to win the conference.

Grayson Allen has abused whoever has taken their turn guarding him between McQuaid and Josh Lanhford. Trevor Duval, who was low key kind of awful last season, has gotten into the lane at will abusing Cassius Winston. Tre Duval just ran a PnR with Cassius and Nick Ward defending him and trying to trap him and he just split the trap easily. And its still 10:29 left in the game replay.

Those 3 simply can't defend at all. It was hidden quite a bit because they were playing with 2 shot blocking athletes in JJJ and Miles Bridges but now those 2 are gone.

Just went and looked up the Box score - Grayson Allen ends up with 37 this game and Trevon Duval ends up with 17 points and 10 assists.

 

[cheeseman18]

So what are your main predictors? I'm not saying you won't be right, but I just think IU will be loaded with talent but as I've said before there will not be enough balls in Bloomington.

Most of the offensive rating predictions come from Torvik's data, because I don't have good access to the data of who is leaving and returning for each team, and how many minutes they will likely play. What he does is look at last season's offensive ratings of the returning players, then gives them all a bump up based on age. The sophomore leap is larger than others because that's historically what happens. Then he predicts the offensive rating of the incoming freshman, based purely on recruiting rankings, I believe. There is no other great way to evaluate a freshman who hasn't played yet. I use those ratings plus the predicted usage rate of each player to average out what the team offensive ranking will be.

On the defensive side, it takes into account last season's defensive rating, plus the last 3 years of defensive ratings from that particular coach. Then there is also a bump up or down based upon returning minutes, because it's been shown historically that when a team returns a higher percentage of their minutes, their defense improves proportionally. It makes sense, the more continuity and familiarity you have with the players and playing together within the system, the better the defense will get.

 

[Purdue0034]

Yes, it's computer based, not just an opinion article. He tries to quantify what incoming freshman will do based on their rankings, how much returning players will improve based on their former rankings, college stats and age, and then computes each team's defense based on history of last year's team, returning minutes and the coach's defensive history. It's pretty involved.

Yes it's pretty involved, but it's pretty flawed too based on the results. I am still working on my predictions, that I will post later; trying to improve on my almost perfect prediction from last year! I can tell you one thing, there is no way on God's green earth Purdue doesn't finish in at least the top 4 of the BIG. Torvik's computer prediction of 8th place behind Iowa, Wisky and IU - that's not going to happen!

 

[HoosierfanJM]

I'll answer....The Illini have recruited four or five top 100 four star players....from PG to two or three post players including 6'11, 6'9", etc., along with some 3's who will be solid role players. They have experience coming back, and talent coming in. And I think Underwood will rise to be one of the best in the league. Underwood's tenure at Oklahoma State was unusually short — just one season — but it also provided evidence that he can orchestrate a quick turnaround. The Cowboys went from a 12-win team in 2015-16 to a 20-win team that advanced to the NCAA tournament this season with one of the nation's highest-scoring offenses.

And, in regard to size, though he's no Bob Knight, if you remember Knight was tinkering with the idea if you have all players who werevery athletic and 6'5" to 6'7" and who could play multiple positions, you didn't need that big man. That's the one thing I wish we could have seen from Bob.

As for PSU, The Nittany Lions ran rampant through the NIT. They were a club with more than enough talent to earn an NCAA Tournament berth but didn't because of a weak pre-season schedule. This year, they're playing top teams pre-season with only one real dog. I'm very impressed with DANIIL KASATKIN from Russia...6'7" guard who can play point or SG. Mike Watkins returns from the knee injury and if he's healed physically and mentally, he's the real deal and a beast on the boards. Chambers, in my opinion, has done a great job at a totally football committed school. I ranked both in the bottom half, but believe both could finish higher.

Only time will tell if those of us picking PSU and the Illini to do well are right.

I suppose I could see Penn State getting there - they had a nice year last year, but there are two major hurdles they have to overcome:

1. Carr and Garner (especially Carr) were a big, big part of why they had a good year last year, and both are gone. I hadn't heard of the guard from Russia, but I looked him up and he's a composite un-ranked skinny freshman who averaged 14 ppg in high school.
2. Watkins just got arrested. Again. He's questionable to even return to the team.

As for Illinois, I enjoyed watching them play last year; especially on the defensive end; they played really hard and created a little bit of chaos. They will start Frazier, who is a really good player, and a borderline 5 star freshman at guard.

BUT, they lost every single player from last year's team over 6'6". Every one of them. Who are they bringing in for their frontline? Two freshmen composite ranked in the mid 300's, a 6'11" freshman ranked 287th who is academically ineligible and can't practice with them until mid-August (and that's only if he gets eligible), and a good, really big grad transfer from Kent State who tore his ACL only four months ago. They are screwed IMO.

 

[cheeseman18]

Yes it's pretty involved, but it's pretty flawed too based on the results. I am still working on my predictions, that I will post later; trying to improve on my almost perfect prediction from last year! I can tell you one thing, there is no way on God's green earth Purdue doesn't finish in at least the top 4 of the BIG. Torvik's computer prediction of 8th place behind Iowa, Wisky and IU - that's not going to happen!

I'll be back around March and see if Purdue is in the top 4 or not. They may be, It's possible, but I would never go as far as to say that there is no way on earth they aren't top 4. I really think a lot of people here are over-hyping how good Purdue will be next year. I think they take a sizable step back. But that's why they play the games, someone will be right, someone will be wrong. We'll see.

 

[proudopete]

I'll be back around March and see if Purdue is in the top 4 or not. They may be, It's possible, but I would never go as far as to say that there is no way on earth they aren't top 4. I really think a lot of people here are over-hyping how good Purdue will be next year. I think they take a sizable step back. But that's why they play the games, someone will be right, someone will be wrong. We'll see.

It’s normal on fan sites. You are doing the same inferring that IU will make a sizeabke leap this year. There is no precedent to support you assertion, yet Painter just finished a season where he was expected to take a step back and didn’t, so...

 

[BoilerAndy]

Lol think what you want. I just listened to a podcast he was on where he explained his system. All of his algorithms are set, once he pulls the necessary data in, it outputs the rankings automatically. No opinion included. In fact he admits that he really doesn't agree with a lot of the stuff it shows

People sometimes use the term "algorithm" as if it somehow makes the computer program legitimate. His algorithm is simply a formula with a set of parameters, all of which he THINKS are important and all weighted according to the degree of importance he THINKS they have. His opinion plays a huge roll in this.

What would make this legitimate is if he can demonstrate that his past predictions (models) fit reality at the end of the year. Anyone know?

 

[nagemj02]

I look at this coming season as being similar to Purdue going into the 2012-2013 season after losing Hummel, Lewis Jackson, Ryne Smith, John Hart to transfer, and Kelsey Barlow to dismissal. The difference is that the '12-'13 team didn't have a returning player of Carsen Edwards' caliber.